Cold Logic in these Hot Times

The interesting thing about discrimination is that it doesn't prevent inevitable change. Puritans established a new home in North America, an Irish Catholic became president, African-Americans got the vote.

It doesn’t take much research to see how often advances do not earn out and how many books go unsold. Publishers know they will save millions if they stop paying advances and discontinue the practice of printing books no one buys. In business, it is always about the money. The bottom line rules.

The paradigm has already shifted. Nothing writers’ organizations do can prevent it - no matter how hard they try.

So what do I see in the future? In the near term, some chaos. Publishing is a big ship and it will turn slowly. As it alters course, all the people associated with it will be forced to change as well.

• No advances means cash flow shifts for all parties.Publishers will have to improve their sales reporting so writers and publicists can capitalize on successful efforts.

• No returns means no royalty hold back.

• No large print runs means promotion and advertising will focus on content and credentials, not quantities shipped. No print runs also means fewer trees consumed and fewer books ending up in land fills.

The symbiotic relationship between publisher, agent and writer will transform. Income will be totally sales driven. Agents will redefine their roles and the services they provide. Book stores, if they continue to exist, will be forced to control their inventory - just like every other business. Everyone connected to the industry will operate differently in the future than they do today. The publishing industry paradigm was fine sixty years ago but it doesn’t make good business sense in today’s economy.

Do I welcome the change? For the most part, I do. Since I have never been part of the traditional publishing establishment, I am accustomed to managing my business. I work hard to promote myself and improve my product. The decisions about contracts, publishers and marketing are all mine. So, as the industry morphs into something new, I will feel less pain than some other writers because I am already dealing with it.

Perhaps those genre writers groups don’t think I’m lower quality. Maybe they discriminate because they are jealous?

Discrimination - Part One

Discrimination is an integral part of our lives. To be labeled discriminating when selecting a car or a coat is a good thing.

There is, however, a dark side to the act of discrimination. We go there when we make choices or decisions that have nothing whatever to do with individual merit. We go there when we are afraid.

At a mystery conference a few years ago, I listened to a best-selling thriller writer deliver the opening speech. In it, she bemoaned the loss of readers in general and then condemned independent and subsidy-published writers for flooding the market with books that readers chose over hers.

Several rebuttals come to mind immediately.

First, librarians tell me that reading is up. It is the manner of reading that is changing. People are reading with their ears rather than with their eyes. Audio books, in all formats, are flying off the shelves, so to speak.

Second, books are expensive and they take up a lot of space. I stopped buying books some time ago. I patronize my library. Now, with the focus on environmental responsibility, libraries make even more sense. This writer should be careful not to confuse readers with buyers. Sales may be down but her readership may be up.

Finally, that thriller writer may have declining sales because readers no longer want to read what she writes. People’s tastes change. She should examine her product and decide if it needs to be altered or replaced with a new one. She would not be the first writer to do that. We all love Spenser but we like Jesse Stone, too.

Writing is a craft; publishing is a business and that business is rapidly morphing into something entirely different. If this thriller writer owns an iPod, she is part of the change that happened in the music business. Similar changes can be seen in book publishing. She probably feels the revolution in the music business was good. She benefits from it. Obviously she, and others like her, feel those same changes in the publishing industry are not good. They are afraid.

In their fear, they lash out. They announce that the writers who have embraced the change are lower class and unworthy. They close doors to marketing opportunities. They prevent us from participating in conferences and professional organizations.

In other words, they discriminate.